My Main Card Predictions and Bets:
#7 'Shogun' +120 vs. NR* Sonnen -150
I'm picking Shogun because he's got the edge standing up and on the ground. Shogun is also a black belt in jiu jitsu with a tricky guard even better than Anderson Silva's guard with his ability to dive for leg locks. Even if he doesn't get the leg lock he uses it to get back up to his feet which is exactly where he wants to be. Although Sonnen can take 'Shogun' down repeatedly I just don't see him fending him off for 25 minutes. I see 'Shogun' winning inside the distance by TKO or knockout especially in a five rounder.
My bet: 33.33$ to win 40$ on Shogun
#5 Overeem -185 vs. NR* Browne +155
I'm picking Overeem because despite getting knocked out in his last fight he is still the superior striker. Browne prefers to stand as well but he's been knocked out before too so his chin has been tested and Overeem will look to test it again. Although Overeem has a suspect chin and Browne could tag it and put him out, I see Overeem's experience being the difference in their fight. I've got Overeem winning eventually by TKO or knockout.
My bet: 74$ to win 40$ on Overeem & check my parlays
#2 Faber -290 vs. NR* Alcantara +230
I'm picking Faber because of his experience and because he is the wrestler so he can dictate where he wants the fight to go. Alcantara likes to go for broke with both his striking and his submissions but I feel Faber will have and answer for anything Alcantara gives him. Since Alcantara is always in the fight I'm picking Faber by decision.
My bet: 116$ to win 40$ on Faber & check my parlays
NR* Pyle +130 vs. NR* Brown -160
As you can see by the line this fight is very close. I myself don't know who to pick. On one hand I'd pick Brown by TKO because of his pressure on the other hand I'd pick Pyle because of his submissions and Brown's poor track record with submission defense. It's hard to see either guy lose right now because of their winning streaks. Both guys have a path to victory. The one who wants it more will most likely win.
My bet: pass
NR* Hall -435 vs. NR* Howard +335
I'm picking Hall because he's more unpredictable with his striking and I feel he's going to come back stronger after a loss. At the very worst I feel he wins all three rounds by decision or ends it with strikes eventually. I will be passing because the line is too high and Howard is no pushover in the striking department himself. With these small gloves and the way Howard fights and the steep line, I would tread cautiously on Hall.
My bet: pass
NR* Lauzon -245 vs. NR* Johnson +195
I'm picking Lauzon because I feel he's not going to let Johnson breath, he's going to constantly be looking for a submission and it will overwhelm Johnson. Even if Lauzon doesn't get the submission I feel he will win the decision atleast because of the constant pressure he's going to put on him.
My bet: check my parlays
My under card bets only:
40.30$ to win 30$ on Gamburyan
40.25$ to win 18.30$ on (Mike) Brown
99$ to win 30$ on Brandao
40$ to win 20$ on McDonald
96$ to win 40$ on McGregor
My Parlays:
18$ to win 50.44$ on Faber, Overeem, McGregor & Lauzon
48$ to win 45.10$ on McGregor & Lauzon
Previous Results: My UFC 163 betting results
Won 2.91$ on Yahya
Won 18.92$ on McCall
Lost 69.66$ on Magalhaes
Won 18.51$ on Lineker
Won 12$ on Lineker vs. Tome to go under 2 1/2 rounds
Lost 70.26$ on Machida
Won 22$ on Machida vs. Davis to go over 2 1/2 rounds
Won 15.69$ on Aldo
Overall I lost 49.89$
P.S. - I would have profited 20.37$ if Machida didn't get robbed.
NR - Not ranked in the top 10
