I'm yet to decide on my bets so I'll only give you my predictions this time.
My Main Card Predictions:
#3 Condit -260 vs. #5 Kampmann +210
This fight is closer than what the odds make it out to be. Both guys are primarily Thai boxers with good jiu jitsu. I would give a slight edge to Condit on the feet and a slight edge to Kampmann on the ground. This is a 5 rounder and atleast we already know that Condit can go 25 minutes, Kampmann, we'll find out. Another thing to note is that Condit has a good chin and Kampmann has been knocked out in the past which is probably why Condit is a 2 to 1 favorite right now. But the X-factor in this fight is the wrestling. Condit's glaring hole in his game is his wrestling and for not being a wrestler Kampmann's a pretty good wrestler. I'd favor Condit but Kampmann can make the scorecards look interesting with his takedowns.
My Pick: I would take Kampmann at +210 or pass
NR* Cerrone -160 vs. NR* Dos Anjos +130
I like Cerrone in this fight. Dos Anjos is a good mid tier lightweight which is pretty good considering lightweight is stacked from top to bottom but I don't think he's on Cerrone's level yet. Cerrone's beaten guys that Dos Anjos has lost to and Cerrone's only lost to exceptional 155er's. I thought Dos Anjos should have lost his last fight against Dunham and Cerrone is a better version of Dunham so at pick'em odds I'd take Cerrone.
My Pick: I will bet on Cerrone
NR* Gastelum -225 vs. NR* Melancon +180
This fight is similar to the main event in a sense that its closer than what the odds tell you. Under normal circumstances I'd tell you to pick Melancon at underdog money. However, Melancon took this fight on short notice replacing Paulo Thiago and his battling a short notice weight cut following his eating benge he recently had after his last fight. So what started out as an close fight has now turned in the favor of Gastelum. Although we don't know how Gastelum is going perform at 170 I'd pick him but tread cautiously if you do.
My Pick: I'll probably pass or place a small wager on Gastelum
NR* Whitaker -140 vs. NR* McGee +110
This fight is very close. Whitaker has very good and organic combos and its worked well for him in the past against lesser competition. However, McGee is a step up in competition to his escapades in TUF so you can't sleep on McGee.
My Pick: I'm passing
NR* Perez -140 vs. NR* Mizugaki +110
I sound like a broken record but this is another close fight. This fight is similar to the Whitaker/McGee fight. Perez has looked good in the UFC so far and is on a winning streak that extends beyond his UFC career so he's doing something right. Mizugaki is a step up in competition though. Mizugaki has only lost to top tier competition and even though Perez is on a roll I don't know if we can put him in the same category as Bowles, Faber and Torres yet which explains the pick'em odds.
My Pick: I'm picking Perez at a low price
NR* Tavares -455 vs. NR* McDaniel +350
I like Tavares in this fight he is 4-1 in his last 5 and flying under the radar racking up wins. Tavares is durable and already battle tested which is why he's a 4 to 1 favorite. McDaniel was one of the better TUF alums outside of Gastelum and Hall and crazier things have happened but, Tavares is definitely better but I would still tread cautiously on the steep betting line.
My Pick: I'm passing
My quick Under Card Picks:
Andrews -285
Thatch -265
Hioki -130
Head -115
Trujillo -120
Cummings -120
My Previous Results: My UFC Fight Night 26 betting results
After Lauzon lost to Johnson I made a last minute bet on Faber and profited 57.75$. Sorry next time I'll show you how it all went down.
NR - not in ranked in the top 10
